Welcome, sports betting enthusiasts, to the first edition of ‘Burke’s Best Bets.’ It’s my weekly blog dedicated to posting my favorite games/lines of the week for, as of now, college football and the NFL. I’ll keep track of my records and if it starts to threaten the Mendoza line…well, then we’re just going to pretend like this never happened, just kidding…maybe. So let’s get started:
*ATS = Against the spread & SU = Straight up*
Tennessee Vs. Jacksonville (Titans -4.0 – O/U 37.5)
So currently this line is at -4.0 in favor of the Titans as of Tuesday morning. I suspect most of the money will be heading toward the Titans and presume that the line will increase as we near game time on Thursday night.
Earlier this season in week three, the Titans, as a 10 point underdog, defeated the Jags in Jacksonville 9-6. The Jags have been nothing but an utter disappointment this year and I predict much of the same will continue as they face off against the Titans once again. Tennessee is 6-6 ATS overall, but 3-2 ATS at home. And on the other hand, Jacksonville is 4-6-3 ATS overall, but 1-3-1 ATS away. Now let’s take a look at the past eight games ATS for both teams:
Now, let’s take a look at some recent SU trends:
1-7 SU in its last eight games
5-1 SU in its last six games at home
5-1 SU when playing Jacksonville
All signs point to picking the Titans in this game, and if you’re not sold yet, another helpful stat to include is that the Titans are 4-1 ATS when playing the Jags.
So the move here is to pick the Titans to cover -4.0 at home against a struggling team who has to prepare on a short week.
Pick: Titans -4.0
Dallas Vs. Philadelphia (Cowboys -3.5 – O/U 43.5)
The Cowboys and Eagles will be meeting once again this season, but this time in Jerry World. In week 10 the Cowboys defeated the defending Super Bowl Champs 27-20 as Dallas came into that game as a 7.5 point underdog.
These teams have split wins and losses in the last 10 matchups with both being 5-5. In those 10, however, Dallas has an ATS record of 6-4 compared to Philly’s 4-6 record.
The Eagles are also 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games. And don’t be fooled by their performance on Monday night, the Eagles were taking advantage of a banged up Redskins team that featured third string QB Mark Sanchez for most of the game. Plus, it was a tight ball game mostly throughout until about the fourth quarter.
On the other side:
Dallas is 4-1 ATS and SU in its last five games and also 4-2 ATS and 5-1 SU at home. There are some concerning numbers for Dallas, however:
– Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home when playing the Eagles
– Cowboys are 1-4 SU its last five playing the Eagles at home
I’m going to choose to ignore those long-term numbers and ride the fighting Jerry Jones’ this Sunday. With big playoff implications for both teams on the line, and with the way the Cowboys have been playing lately, I feel confident in Dallas.
Pick: Dallas -3.5
Washington Vs. New York (Redskins +3.5 – O/U 41)
Alright before we get started, let me preface this by saying I understand Mark Sanchez is leading the Redskins onto the field this Sunday. What a time to be alive. After replacing Colt McCoy, Sanchez went 13/21 for 100 yards with one interception. Obviously not great stats, but from an eye test the man didn’t look awful. And, of course, the Giants are coming off their overtime win against the Bears winning 30-27, with Chase Daniel aiding the G-Men tremendously. Let’s dive in:
-The Giants are 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games with a road ATS record of 5-0
Not too shabby…but
-New York is also 2-4 ATS and SU when playing Washington
Now let’s take a look at the Redskins recent trends:
-Washington is 1-4 SU in its last five games
-Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home
*It’s also important to note that the Redskins did defeat the Giants on the road in week eight 20-13, although Alex Smith’s leg was still intact at that time.*
Though unrealistic given its QB situation, the Skins still have a small sliver of hope to make the playoffs with a weak NFC East. As for the Giants, you would think they would be playing for a top draft pick, although they have won three out of its last five games. But, in their last three games, the final scores have been within three points for New York. With that being said, I like Washington to cover here. I think the home field advantage, a somehow still ferocious Adrian Peterson and a solid defense with Josh Norman covering OBJ, will prove to be enough to cover against Eli Manning and the Giants this Sunday.
Pick: Redskins +3.5
Cincinnati @ Los Angeles Chargers (Chargers -14 – O/U 47.5)
Coming off a dramatic prime-time Sunday night victory, the Chargers are looking to stay hot against a banged up Bengals squad. The important things to note are the injuries for this game:
-A.J. Green is ruled out for the next three to four months
-Andy Dalton, as we all know, went out a couple weeks ago only to be replaced by Jeff Driskel who has only thrown for 475 yards with a disappointing two touchdowns
-Melvin Gordon is still questionable to go this week, although that should not be a concerning issue since his backup, Austin Ekeler, has been a pretty reliable option this season
Cincinnati is allowing the most points per game, 30.9, and have given up at least 24 points in seven straight games. They also allow a league-worst 153.3 rushing yards per game. Last week the Bengals only put up 10 points and the Chargers have only allowed 300 yards of passing once this year, and with star receiver A.J. Green ruled out, this will be a brutal game for Marvin Lewis’ offense.
Numbers to keep in mind:
-Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS and SU in its last seven games
-Bengals are 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games against teams with winning records
-The total has gone OVER in four of Cincinnati’s last five games and five out of the last six road games
-LA is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
-Total O/U record of 6-4
I think expecting-a-child Phillip Rivers is a tough man to beat, especially at home against a collapsing Bengals team. I see the Chargers putting up at least 30 points and not only covering the spread, but hitting the over as well.
Pick: Chargers -14 and Over 47.5
My bonus parlay for this week:
Titans, Chiefs and Cowboys.
Payout odds: +200.
Why? All three teams at home in must win games against lesser opponents.
Good luck and let’s make some money, folks.